Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 11.478791 13.422103 15.549509 18.045346 20.886913 24.014941 27.712338
2024-11-03 8.907076 11.662775 14.979595 19.236749 24.523574 30.838645 38.914607
2024-11-10 7.061616 10.203589 14.306061 19.984203 27.556930 37.216057 50.359589
2024-11-17 5.791227 9.126442 13.800739 20.700499 30.468718 43.619731 62.438241
2024-11-24 4.630134 7.913446 12.826252 20.515035 31.997353 48.209513 72.446212
2024-12-01 3.627680 6.704423 11.604406 19.705779 32.416267 51.158457 80.305106
2024-12-08 2.902048 5.775620 10.627376 19.065897 32.913775 54.145939 88.345385
2024-12-15 2.466931 5.249806 10.200754 19.206002 34.574832 58.946643 99.401064
2024-12-22 2.055545 4.677210 9.589148 18.922986 35.467744 62.564235 108.842991
2024-12-29 1.875272 4.515947 9.683164 19.865117 38.483736 69.788104 124.501175
2025-01-05 1.656473 4.228130 9.487773 20.237903 40.515710 75.508098 138.071165
2025-01-12 1.445027 3.910700 9.180730 20.347729 42.061204 80.488277 150.712080
2025-01-19 1.257608 3.617006 8.894075 20.494973 43.754907 85.973487 164.827335
2025-01-26 1.199760 3.626270 9.256454 22.003956 48.193820 96.689497 188.832061
2025-02-02 1.101462 3.511937 9.328626 22.915970 51.555959 105.706511 210.441292
2025-02-09 1.008675 3.390956 9.365414 23.752026 54.837240 114.800724 232.768843
2025-02-16 0.868523 3.103214 8.959273 23.553566 55.975454 119.929240 248.143065
2025-02-23 0.714849 2.733032 8.283586 22.643576 55.515473 121.926966 257.771545
2025-03-02 0.594740 2.430774 7.724083 21.921858 55.367768 124.492343 268.597670
2025-03-09 0.526638 2.279315 7.538773 22.080845 57.167800 131.064515 287.553291
2025-03-16 0.451297 2.079645 7.182858 21.761081 57.844873 135.375839 302.300859
2025-03-23 0.428158 2.064665 7.355778 22.826126 61.815818 146.777418 331.834873
2025-03-30 0.388602 1.974864 7.290048 23.247343 64.294553 155.168538 355.698348